Introduction :
This study uses the improved hybrid SEIR model to capture the epidemic dynamics of Monkeypox in South America, focusing on Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, and Venezuela. By incorporating demanding dynamics (births and deaths) and dynamic transmission rates, the model better reflects epidemic patterns in scenarios of heterogeneous public interventions. The contrast between Argentina, with robust measures, and Brazil, with minimal interventions, provides insights into the effectiveness of public health strategies.
Methodology:
The hybrid SEIR model has been adapted to include:
Dynamic transmission rates modeled with exponential decay and Gaussian components to capture localized surges.
Optimized parameters (e.g. recovery rates and initiation of interventions) via minimization of root mean square error (RMSE) on data fitted with a Gaussian filter.
Internal dynamics, accounting for population changes due to births and deaths. Data were processed from reliable repositories, with validation by numerical integration.
Results:
Each country presented distinct epidemic dynamics:
Brazil: RMSE of 10.4, reduction good fit of the model. Interventions were late (21.3 days), and the strength was limited (0.0355).
Argentina: RMSE of 5.48, with fast disciplines (day 21.9) and strong impact (strength = 1.0). The inclusion of a Gaussian component improved the fit, decreasing the RMSE to 2.65.
Peru: Interventions neglected at the beginning, RMSE of 5.76. The absence of robust measures verified in greater dependence on the natural dynamics of the epidemic.
Colombia: Moderate interventions (day 31.1, strength = 0.016), with RMSE of 8.50.
The models replicated epidemic curves including initial growth, peak, and decline. Gaussian components captured one-off outbreaks, such as superspreading events.
Discussion :
The results reinforce the adaptability of the hybrid SEIR model in different regional scenarios, highlighting:
Importance of interventions: Parameter optimization revealed that rapid and robust responses significantly reduced transmission.
Regional challenges: Heterogeneity in health infrastructures and population adherence affected by the effectiveness of measures.
Limitations: Assumptions of homogeneity and exclusion of vaccination data limit generalizability.
Conclusion :
The improved model is a robust tool for predicting epidemic dynamics and guiding public health strategies. Its application in other South American countries and beyond could provide a comprehensive understanding of regional variabilities in future outbreaks.
Reference :
Earth Systems and Environment Modeling Editorial Team. Monkeypox virus transmission dynamics: A mathematical modeling approach. Earth Systems and Environment Modeling (Springer), 2022.
Bryne Tan. Modeling the monkeypox outbreak with the refined SEIR model including vital dynamics. CPAH Research Center, 2024.
Bryne Tan. Extending the Hybrid SEIR Model with Vital Dynamics: Insights from Monkeypox Outbreaks in the US and Europe. CPAH Research Center, 2024.
